We hope everyone is staying safe and healthy! We haven’t posted an update to the pandemic situation because we have been busy ourselves preparing our family for social distancing. Things are changing every day, which can be scary and stressful. When I wrote my last post about Coronavirus, I was optimistic about the ability of our nation to limit and contain the virus through widespread measures. But as we know, the messaging and public health policies about the disease early on fell short and we are amidst a serious crisis.
What we now know:
This is a pandemic. This means infection with COVID-19 is a widely spreading, across the globe. At this level, disease burden is very hard to manage without drastic public health measures.
It is spreading exponentially. There is a time during the spread of a disease when it does not grow exponentially. You may see a couple cases here and there, and lots of time in-between. It is possible to contain the virus and prevent diffusion during this period, with significant public health measures. Without those measures eventually cases reach a critical number, and start expanding FAST. We saw that in the US in January and February. There were a couple cases, here and there. Then suddenly, the cases exploded. 1 case, then 10, then 100. Increasing by powers of 10 over a short number of days.
It appears to be more deadly than the flu. The flu, caused by the influenza virus, is a serious illness causing many deaths a year, but the over all mortality is around 0.1%. Coronavirus is showing itself have a mortality between 1-8%. As more cases arise, and all the mild cases are taken into account, this number may change. It is unclear if it will drop lower than 1%, which is on par with a severe flu season.
Much of the world has restrictions on movement within cities, international travel, and social gathering to slow the spread of illness. Washing your hands and avoiding touching your face, while going about daily life, will not be enough to contain the disease. (You should still take these precautions, however!)
What to do:
We should not panic, promote xenophobia or racism.
WHY: There is no one culture or race responsible for this illness. The pandemic spread of a new virus was bound to happen—it was only a matter of time. This is a consensus among scientists in the field. Working together and supporting our communities will be the only way to get through this difficult time, like when a nation is at war.
WHY: Panic causes irrational behavior. Hoarding masks, food and antiseptic supplies has left our communities health care system suffering. The very system we hope will help us—or a loved one— if we get sick.
WHY: Even in the serious conditions in Italy and China, people had access to food and medicine. Hoarding is not necessary. Some preparation is reasonable.
We should socially distance or quarantine if you have symptoms. Your town or city may have no official measures in place to restrict gathering, but this type of separation is essential. Many cities and states already have measures in place, including California, New York, and New Jersey.
WHY: Most people who come in contact with this illness will be fine, may feel like they have a run of the mill cold or something like the flu. However, our vulnerable population (older, sick, immunocompromised) will be at higher risk of getting critically ill (needing hospitalization or ICU) due to mild or asymptomatic people spreading the virus around. It can be spread around for up to 2 weeks.
WHY: If too many people do get the disease and require hospitalization, our hospitals will become overrun and more people will die simply due to lack of space, resources, and personnel.
We should support health care workers. Again, STAY HOME-to avoid spread of disease. Don’t hoard masks and gloves. Donate gloves or masks to your local hospital or clinic.
WHY: Health care systems and clinics are already overwhelmed by the influx of patients. In many places there will not be enough hospital beds and ventilators to support the ill. Someone, maybe even your own loved one, may end up in a situation where they could have lived if there was a ventilator to get them through the illness.
WHY: Doctors are EXHAUSTED. Doctors, nurses, other health care professionals, cleaning staff, ancillary staff are needed to run health centers and hospitals. They are exhausted and unable to see their families due to fear of spreading the disease. They are working longer hours and getting burned out. Some are even getting sick and hospitalized due to poor working conditions.
This will not be an easy fight and we are only just in the beginning. We can make it through, but it will take all of us.
Keep visiting Kahnhealth.com/blog for more posts about current topics related to COVID-19. This is a rapidly changing situation, please check state and national mandates about how to live, work and travel during this pandemic.
Other helpful sites: www.CDC.gov, www.WHO.int
Stay Healthy and Safe.